Geopolitics, Monetary Policy, and Risk Pricing

Global markets enter 2026 in a complex environment where escalating U.S. geopolitical actions in Latin America intersect with a sensitive phase of the global economic cycle. U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro have brought geopolitics back to the forefront of asset pricing, at a time when markets are closely watching the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy and key economic data.

Key Features of Market Sentiment

• Relative stability in U.S. equity futures despite the political backdrop
• Volatility remains contained, with reduced appetite for uncalculated risk
• Geopolitical headlines are being priced cautiously unless they evolve into a direct economic shock

Geopolitics and Its Impact on Assets

Rhetoric from the Donald Trump administration, which included direct references to U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere, has raised the global political risk premium and placed indirect pressure on emerging markets, alongside increased demand for hedging instruments and defensive assets.

Oil and Equities: Limited but Conditional Reaction

Despite Venezuela holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, oil prices did not show a strong reaction due to weak current production and the absence of a clear timeline for supply recovery, making this a longer-term story rather than an immediate catalyst. Meanwhile, U.S. equities maintained resilience, supported by momentum in technology and artificial intelligence, though with heightened sensitivity to any political escalation or negative economic surprises.

The Dollar and Liquidity: The Compass of the Next Phase

The U.S. dollar has remained strong, supported by the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy. However, attention remains focused on labor market data, inflation figures, and Federal Reserve communications. Any signals of economic slowdown could accelerate expectations of interest-rate cuts and reshape global capital flows. With seasonally low liquidity at the start of the year, the risk of exaggerated price moves increases, making risk management a priority.

Technical Analysis – Major Assets

Gold (XAU/USD)

Overall Trend: Bullish, with correction risks
Pivot Level: Near the 4,520 area

• Key Resistances: 4,438, then 4,610
• Key Support: 4,270 – 4,300

Technical Indicators:

• RSI in elevated territory → risk of short-term profit-taking
• Price above key moving averages → medium-term trend remains supportive

Technical Conclusion: Any pullback toward support zones is viewed as a correction within an uptrend, unless a clear break below 4,270 occurs.

Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ 100)

Overall Trend: Positive but short-term overbought
Pivot Level: Near recent yearly highs

• Resistances: Previous all-time highs (retest zone), followed by the last consolidation area
• Supports: 50-day moving average

Technical Indicators:

• RSI leaning toward overbought levels → potential for sideways movement
• Momentum supported by AI stocks, but at a slower pace

Technical Conclusion: The uptrend remains intact, but any break below short-term moving averages could open the door to a healthy correction before resuming the upward move.

Final Conclusion

Markets begin 2026 in a fragile balance: they are not pricing in a crisis scenario, but they are more sensitive to political developments than ever. Combining fundamental and geopolitical analysis with disciplined technical execution is key to navigating this phase.